Karnataka Elections and role of BSP

So the election results for Karnataka assembly were kind of as predicted as well as surprising. BJP finally got almost a majority and they probably would peacefully run a government for next five years. But most of the analysts on TV were (without looking at the data) saying that congress lost because of BSP. So I thought that let me see if the data supports that fact. Here is a table of constituencies where congress's loss margin was less than the vote that BSP got. For simplicity I am assuming that if BSP was not the spoilsport and all the vote would have gone to congress they would have won. Here is the data

S No.	Constituency No	Constituency Name	Votes to Congress	Votes polled to BSP	Votes of Winner	Victory Margin
1	32	Indi	28885	7840	29456	571
2	35	Jevargi	46461	2266	46531	70
3	46	Aland	36689	14405	42473	5784
4	71	Dharwad	34694	1302	35417	723
5	78	Kumta	30772	1819	30792	20
6	81	Yellapur	36624	3278	39109	2485
7	98	Challakere	42302	3938	42591	289
8	109	Channagiri	38533	1372	39526	993
9	121	Kapu	44994	1109	45961	967
10	123	Sringeri	41396	4758	43646	2250
11	124	Mudigere	26084	11724	34579	8495
12	129	Tiptur	39168	8021	46034	6866
13	138	Madhugiri	51408	769	51971	563
14	153	Yeshvanthapura	56561	1331	57643	1082
15	206	Puttur	45180	2553	46605	1425

So there seems to be some merit to the logic that there is a significant number of seats that could have gone the congress way if all the vote that BSP got would have got transferred to congress. But this is only half the story. So I collected the same data for BJP and here are the results.

S No.	Constituency No	Constituency Name	Votes to BJP	Votes polled to BSP	Votes of Winner	Victory Margin
1	5	Kudachi	28715	1910	29481	766
2	18	Ramdurg	48862	1187	49246	384
3	26	Muddebihal	21662	14286	24065	2403
4	49	Bidar South	30783	21907	32054	1271
5	50	Bidar	20561	30627	33557	12996
6	53	Raichur Rural	29097	8499	34432	5335
7	75	Kalghatgi	38091	14992	49733	11642
8	78	Kumta	30201	1819	30792	591
9	103	Jagalur	35873	6482	38664	2791
10	205	Bantval	60309	1396	61560	1251
11	214	Nanjangud	42159	4513	42867	708
12	222	Kollegal	25586	25505	37384	11798
13	223	Chamarajanagar	39405	8866	42017	2612
14	224	Gundlupet	62621	7677	64824	2203

And the result and the damage is very similar, Now one can not really make a call on whom does BSP vote go to if the BSP was not contesting the election and I would think that it is more likely to get transferred in the ratio of the votes that were otherwise polled to each of the parties. A similar analysis for JDS also shows following

S No.	Constituency No	Constituency Name	Votes to BJP	Votes polled to BSP	Votes of Winner	Victory Margin
1	26	Muddebihal	14739	14286	24065	9326
2	53	Raichur Rural	32555	8499	34432	1877
3	112	Bhadravati	52770	2532	53257	487
4	127	Kadur	36000	4078	39411	3411
5	143	Chintamani	56857	1419	58103	1246
6	192	Krishnarajpet	45500	10218	48556	3056
7	210	Piriyapatna	37574	7814	38453	879
8	222	Kollegal	25286	25505	37384	12098

Another eight such constituencies. Now in each of these datasets the party in question (i.e. Congress, BJP, BSP) is not necessarily the second party, in some cases it may be third.

One thing is certain, BSP got significant percentage of votes in certain seats and definitely impacted the result of election but I would not really believe that it has impacted one party more than the other.

Love hate relationship between BJP and PM

BJP and PM seems to have an strange love hate relationship. Yesterday, BJP jumped to the defense of PM.

Rubbing salt on Congress' wounds, the BJP on Wednesday alleged Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has been "insulted" because of the "make Rahul Gandhi Prime Minister" chant by a section of the ruling party leaders.

One would think that they would be really worried by the prime minister and insults being heaped on him. But it does seem that way really. In not so distant past the same party had this to say.

Manmohan has lost his mental balance, says BJP

And just before that, they had this to say.

Singh was the target of fresh salvos from Modi who at an election meeting in Bapunagar area here asked the crowd, "Do you recognise the Prime Minister?"

"I am talking about Manmohan Singh... He is our Prime Minister," he said in an apparent attempt to belittle Singh.

I am not sure what they are up to, but it is definitely entertaining.

Ram Sethu

There seems to be a whole lot politics going around the Ram Sethu. I am not sure if it was made by vanar sena or somebody else. But I think the fact that we want to clean-it up is bizzare.

Even Archeological Survey of India which filed the affidavit that resulted in the political mess, agrees to following.

The Rameshwaram island evolved approximately 1,25,000 years Before Present.

The Dhanushkodi sand pit appears to be a feature of coastal processes and shoreline emergence and its orientation appears to be along the dissipation of wave energy patters of Palk Bay and Gulf of Manor.

Now my point is that keeping aside the fact of it being built during the time of Rama or not, this is a extremely old structure/formation. That fact itself should be used to not-destroy it but rather develop it as some kind of tourism attraction. If you really see, Grand Canyon is just a large hole in ground but they do not go around filling it.

I think the whole direction of debate it misplaced. Irrespective of the fact, who build it, something that is so old should not be allowed to be destroyed by some people who are hell bent on doing it because of ego.

Communists and their self-proclaimed national interest

The communists and their drama is on again. They show up on TV and claim to be only people interested in national interest when in the past their behavior has suggested time and again that they should not even try. Except in WB and Kerala, nobody falls for their theatrics. See this story. To quote a para from the story.

It is not without significance that the vigorous campaign of the leftist parties -- particularly of the CPI-M -- against the recently concluded Indo-US agreement on civil nuclear co-operation and against the growing strategic interactions between India and the US in particular has coincided with the beginning of the Chinese campaign against the so-called quadrilateral strategic interaction involving India, Japan, the US and Australia and the naval exercise with the additional involvement of the Singapore navy.

The leftists' campaign against India's relations with the US reflects more China's concerns and interests than those of India. I have never been excited over the Indo-US agreement on civil nuclear co-operation. Nor do I share Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh's [Images] enthusiasm for US President George Bush [Images] and the Indo-US agreement. I am inclined to feel that what we are seeing now is a one-night stand between Dr Singh and Mr Bush. Like most one-night stands, the happy thoughts thereafter will become an embarrassment in course of time.

At the same time here is another story in a newspaper. To quote a para from that story.

China and its â??all-weatherâ?? ally Pakistan are discussing an agreement similar to the one India has reached with the US on the civilian nuclear cooperation to maintain the regional security balance, sources said.

Now, somebody needs to explain to me, how does civilian nuclear cooperation results in regional security imbalance. Civilian nuclear cooperation is supposed to be about energy needs of a country and should have nothing to do with regional security imbalance. That point aside, communists seem to have no issues with that. Till the time it is "India" that gets shafted, communists are happy.

Here is another story. To quote from the story.

The fuel shortage situation has started telling on the performance of the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL). Currently operating nuclear power stations with a capacity of around 4,000 MWe, it has been forced to slash power production levels.

The overall plant load factor (PLF) has come down from a high of 80-90 per cent to around 60 per cent in some three years â?? a drop of 30 per cent when thereâ??s power shortage in the country.

â?¢ NPCIL Chairman-cum-Managing Director S K Jain says the fuel shortage-led fall in PLF has already resulted in a loss of Rs 800 crore potential revenue.

So, to summarize, India needs fuel for its existing power reactors leave alone for the new ones that need to be built. India does not have this fuel available within. I know there are people with swadeshi angle who would want us to build everything inhouse but the fact is after 60 years of independence and 40 years of first nuclear test, we still produce abysmal amount of nuclear power and that too is dwindling. There a country who is willing to provide us this fuel which will let us generate more power but we believe because they are willing to give that power there must be something wrong either with them or with us.

I think we have enough diplomats and lawyers who can read the text of any treaty and figure out where it has that small print that is making us worried. I have not seen anything from anybody (except the fear psychosis created by communists) that would suggest that the deal is really bad for us. I have hear arguments that it is good for us or probably we don't gain much.

I think we should have confidence in being able to handle ourselves with determination if in future something new props up, but to mortgage our present because we don't believe in ourselves and our governments to be able to handle ourselves better in future is stupidity.

And by the way, these communists needs to be kicked out. Please, friends in Kerala and WB, kick them out.