Now that SP and BSP have announced their pre-poll alliance for Lok Sabha 2019 election, let's look at the numbers. Let's look at constituencies where BJP won but SP + BPS got a larger vote share. So with this unlikely assumption that all the vote is transferrable, what would be the impact of these parties coming together. Following is the list of constituencies where SP + BSP scored more than BJP in the last election.
So, there are 36 constituencies where SP + BSP had polled more vote than BJP in last election. Since we are doing this hypothetical exercise, let's how the situation changes if we throw INC also in the mix.
So, if we take BSP+SP+INC together, we see that they polled more votes than BJP in last election in 48 constituencies.
Showing posts with label Elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elections. Show all posts
Saturday, January 12, 2019
Thursday, April 3, 2014
India Elections Tidbits #2: Margin of victory
Psephology in Indian elections of always interesting. Television commentators and professors from some mathematics istitute discus on television as if what they discovered is a forgone conclusion. I have heard statements like "Now that congress has lost it, what next for them?".
Following is the list of constituencies with the winning margin.
In summary, based on last election, there are 149 constituencies which were won with less than 5% margin.
 |
| Winning margin for constituencies with less than 5% margin |
| Constituency No | Constituency | State | Percentage Margin |
| 5 | Zahirabad | Andhra Pradesh | 1.71% |
| 6 | Medak | Andhra Pradesh | 0.57% |
| 10 | Chelvella | Andhra Pradesh | 1.60% |
| 11 | Mahbubnagar | Andhra Pradesh | 2.43% |
| 12 | Nagarkurnool | Andhra Pradesh | 4.66% |
| 23 | Kakinada | Andhra Pradesh | 3.53% |
| 24 | Amalapuram | Andhra Pradesh | 3.91% |
| 25 | Rajahmundry | Andhra Pradesh | 0.21% |
| 27 | Eluru | Andhra Pradesh | 3.97% |
| 28 | Machilipatnam | Andhra Pradesh | 1.19% |
| 29 | Vijayawada | Andhra Pradesh | 1.17% |
| 30 | Guntur | Andhra Pradesh | 3.77% |
| 31 | Narasaraopet | Andhra Pradesh | 0.15% |
| 37 | Hindupur | Andhra Pradesh | 2.22% |
| 40 | Tirupati | Andhra Pradesh | 1.82% |
| 42 | Chittoor | Andhra Pradesh | 1.02% |
| 43 | Arunachal West | Arunachal Pradesh | 0.46% |
| 45 | Karimganj | Assam | 1.16% |
| 50 | Barpeta | Assam | 3.38% |
| 51 | Gauhati | Assam | 1.07% |
| 53 | Tezpur | Assam | 3.58% |
| 54 | Nowgong | Assam | 4.54% |
| 57 | Dibrugarh | Assam | 4.68% |
| 58 | Lakhimpur | Assam | 4.90% |
| 69 | Katihar | Bihar | 1.88% |
| 74 | Vaishali | Bihar | 2.70% |
| 79 | Hajipur | Bihar | 4.45% |
| 89 | Pataliputra | Bihar | 3.75% |
| 100 | South Goa | Goa | 4.60% |
| 102 | Banaskantha | Gujarat | 0.84% |
| 105 | Sabarkantha | Gujarat | 2.39% |
| 118 | Panchmahal | Gujarat | 0.19% |
| 126 | Valsad | Gujarat | 0.51% |
| 129 | Sirsa | Haryana | 2.41% |
| 147 | Chikkodi | Karnataka | 4.42% |
| 149 | Bagalkot | Karnataka | 2.47% |
| 157 | Dharwad | Karnataka | 3.70% |
| 163 | Dakshina Kannada | Karnataka | 3.22% |
| 167 | Mysore | Karnataka | 1.70% |
| 170 | Bangalore North | Karnataka | 3.62% |
| 172 | Bangalore South | Karnataka | 2.90% |
| 180 | Malappuram | Kerala | 0.00% |
| 183 | Alathur | Kerala | 2.53% |
| 184 | Thrissur | Kerala | 3.20% |
| 186 | Ernakulam | Kerala | 1.58% |
| 196 | Bhind | Madhya Pradesh | 4.38% |
| 203 | Satna | Madhya Pradesh | 0.44% |
| 209 | Balaghat | Madhya Pradesh | 3.82% |
| 216 | Ujjain | Madhya Pradesh | 4.48% |
| 218 | Ratlam | Madhya Pradesh | 4.65% |
| 222 | Khandwa | Madhya Pradesh | 4.28% |
| 224 | Nandurbar | Maharashtra | 3.97% |
| 228 | Buldhana | Maharashtra | 3.29% |
| 253 | Mumbai South Central | Maharashtra | 4.93% |
| 264 | Latur | Maharashtra | 1.51% |
| 276 | Mizoram | Mizoram | 0.00% |
| 286 | Dhenkanal | Orissa | 2.17% |
| 287 | Bolangir | Orissa | 4.82% |
| 289 | Nabarangpur | Orissa | 0.00% |
| 295 | Bhubaneswar | Orissa | 1.46% |
| 303 | Hoshiarpur | Punjab | 2.93% |
| 308 | Ferozpur | Punjab | 2.20% |
| 339 | Chennai North | Tamil Nadu | 2.90% |
| 340 | Chennai South | Tamil Nadu | 4.52% |
| 342 | Sriperumbudur | Tamil Nadu | 2.23% |
| 344 | Arakkonam | Tamil Nadu | 1.41% |
| 350 | Viluppuram | Tamil Nadu | 0.35% |
| 360 | Karur | Tamil Nadu | 3.12% |
| 362 | Perambalur | Tamil Nadu | 0.95% |
| 368 | Sivaganga | Tamil Nadu | 0.43% |
| 370 | Theni | Tamil Nadu | 0.41% |
| 380 | Kairana | Uttar Pradesh | 3.10% |
| 381 | Muzaffarnagar | Uttar Pradesh | 1.60% |
| 401 | Badaun | Uttar Pradesh | 1.96% |
| 408 | Sitapur | Uttar Pradesh | 2.79% |
| 423 | Jalaun | Uttar Pradesh | 0.91% |
| 433 | Ambedkar Nagar | Uttar Pradesh | 1.87% |
| 437 | Gonda | Uttar Pradesh | 1.37% |
| 449 | Salempur | Uttar Pradesh | 4.64% |
| 480 | Jadavpur | West Bengal | 4.54% |
| 483 | Howrah | West Bengal | 3.75% |
| 484 | Uluberia | West Bengal | 4.64% |
| 509 | Mahasamund | Chattisgarh | 4.11% |
| 523 | Lohardaga | Jharkhand | 1.45% |
- Less than 1% margin -- 16 seats
- Between 1% and 2% margin -- 19 seats
- Between 2 % and 3% margin -- 30 seats
- Between 3% and 4% margin -- 36 seats
- Between 4% and 5% margin -- 48 seats
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)