Saturday, January 12, 2019

UP Alliance, the numbers

Now that SP and BSP have announced their pre-poll alliance for Lok Sabha 2019 election, let's look at the numbers. Let's look at constituencies where BJP won but SP + BPS got a larger vote share. So with this unlikely assumption that all the vote is transferrable, what would be the impact of these parties coming together. Following is the list of constituencies where SP + BSP scored more than BJP in the last election.


No.ConstituencyBJPBSP + SP
1Allahabad313772413836
2Ambedkar Nagar432104527142
3Amroha528880533649
4Aonla409907461678
5Bahraich432392433651
6Ballia359758362008
7Banda342066416008
8Basti357680607865
9Bhadohi403695484266
10Bijnor486913511263
11Chandauli414135461524
12Dhaurahra360357468714
13Domariyaganj298845370035
14Etawah439646459504
15Fatehpur Sikri426589466880
16Ghazipur306929516122
17Ghosi379797399669
18Hardoi360501555701
19Jaunpur367149400842
20Jhansi575889599214
21Kaiserganj381500450008
22Kaushambi331724490146
23Kheri398578448416
24Lalganj324016494901
25Machhlishahr438210457442
26Misrikh412575519971
27Mohanlalganj455274552224
28Moradabad485224558665
29Nagina367825521120
30Rampur358616416187
31Sambhal360242607708
32Sant Kabir Nagar348892491083
33Shahjahanpur525132532516
34Shrawasti345964454941
35Sitapur417546522689
36Sultanpur410348459590
So, there are 36 constituencies where SP + BSP had polled more vote than BJP in last election. Since we are doing this hypothetical exercise, let's how the situation changes if we throw INC also in the mix.

No.ConstituencyBJPBSP+SP+INC
1Aligarh514622516844
2Allahabad313772516289
3Ambedkar Nagar432104549917
4Amroha528880533649
5Aonla409907555539
6Bahraich432392458072
7Ballia359758362008
8Banda342066452658
9Barabanki454214568770
10Basti357680635538
11Bhadohi403695484266
12Bijnor486913511263
13Chandauli414135488718
14Dhaurahra360357639708
15Domariyaganj298845370035
16Etawah439646472901
17Farrukhabad406195465757
18Fatehpur485994525100
19Fatehpur Sikri426589474327
20Ghazipur306929516122
21Ghosi379797399669
22Gonda359639417659
23Hardoi360501578999
24Jaunpur367149400842
25Jhansi575889683303
26Kaiserganj381500507409
27Kaushambi331724522051
28Kheri398578632356
29Kushi Nagar370051528648
30Lalganj324016516733
31Machhlishahr438210493717
32Maharajganj471542502251
33Meerut532981555325
34Mirzapur436536478982
35Misrikh412575553046
36Mohanlalganj455274604822
37Moradabad485224558665
38Nagina367825521120
39Pratapgarh375789466294
40Rampur358616572653
41Robertsganj378211409926
42Sambhal360242607708
43Sant Kabir Nagar348892491083
44Shahjahanpur525132559527
45Shrawasti345964454941
46Sitapur417546551793
47Sultanpur410348501573
48Unnao518834605935
So, if we take BSP+SP+INC together, we see that they polled more votes than BJP in last election in 48 constituencies.

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