Monday, May 26, 2008

Karnataka Elections and role of BSP

So the election results for Karnataka assembly were kind of as predicted as well as surprising. BJP finally got almost a majority and they probably would peacefully run a government for next five years. But most of the analysts on TV were (without looking at the data) saying that congress lost because of BSP. So I thought that let me see if the data supports that fact. Here is a table of constituencies where congress's loss margin was less than the vote that BSP got. For simplicity I am assuming that if BSP was not the spoilsport and all the vote would have gone to congress they would have won. Here is the data




















































































































































S No.Constituency NoConstituency NameVotes to CongressVotes polled to BSPVotes of WinnerVictory Margin
132Indi28885784029456571
235Jevargi4646122664653170
346Aland3668914405424735784
471Dharwad34694130235417723
578Kumta3077218193079220
681Yellapur366243278391092485
798Challakere42302393842591289
8109Channagiri38533137239526993
9121Kapu44994110945961967
10123Sringeri413964758436462250
11124Mudigere2608411724345798495
12129Tiptur391688021460346866
13138Madhugiri5140876951971563
14153Yeshvanthapura565611331576431082
15206Puttur451802553466051425


So there seems to be some merit to the logic that there is a significant number of seats that could have gone the congress way if all the vote that BSP got would have got transferred to congress. But this is only half the story. So I collected the same data for BJP and here are the results.











































































































































S No.Constituency NoConstituency NameVotes to BJPVotes polled to BSPVotes of WinnerVictory Margin
15Kudachi28715191029481766
218Ramdurg48862118749246384
326Muddebihal2166214286240652403
449Bidar South3078321907320541271
550Bidar20561306273355712996
653Raichur Rural290978499344325335
775Kalghatgi38091149924973311642
878Kumta30201181930792591
9103Jagalur358736482386642791
10205Bantval603091396615601251
11214Nanjangud42159451342867708
12222Kollegal25586255053738411798
13223Chamarajanagar394058866420172612
14224Gundlupet626217677648242203


And the result and the damage is very similar, Now one can not really make a call on whom does BSP vote go to if the BSP was not contesting the election and I would think that it is more likely to get transferred in the ratio of the votes that were otherwise polled to each of the parties. A similar analysis for JDS also shows following





















































































S No.Constituency NoConstituency NameVotes to BJPVotes polled to BSPVotes of WinnerVictory Margin
126Muddebihal1473914286240659326
253Raichur Rural325558499344321877
3112Bhadravati52770253253257487
4127Kadur360004078394113411
5143Chintamani568571419581031246
6192Krishnarajpet4550010218485563056
7210Piriyapatna37574781438453879
8222Kollegal25286255053738412098


Another eight such constituencies. Now in each of these datasets the party in question (i.e. Congress, BJP, BSP) is not necessarily the second party, in some cases it may be third.

One thing is certain, BSP got significant percentage of votes in certain seats and definitely impacted the result of election but I would not really believe that it has impacted one party more than the other.

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